This is when the games count the most. When it comes down to execution over strategy. Mental toughness over physical toughness. It's determination and will. It's when you face teams that are so familiar with each other, you know them better than you know your own momma. It's the grind we all know and love.
It's the grind over these last two months of the season that will separate the contenders and pretenders.
3 Things (1 Big Thing + 2 Small Things)
And with that I've decided to dispense with the "1 Big Thing" and the "2 Small Things" for this week and combine them to just give you 3 Things.
What are those things you might ask? Those things would be my rundowns of the conference races to this point. Since it's kind of the unofficial halfway mark of the season, I figured that this would be a good time to run down each of the conferences and give you my favorites to win.
And with that we'll get going.
WIAC
UW-Stevens Point heads a bunched up top at 3-0 in conference play with a win over UW-Whitewater under their belt.
Behind them are four teams with just one loss: Whitewater, UW-Stout, UW-Platteville and UW-La Crosse.
Out of these five teams, only one got through the holidays unscathed by a non-conference loss -- UW-Platteville. But while getting wins in their two games against La Verne (Calif.) and Colorado College, they weren't exactly convincing against solid, yet not WIAC-caliber teams.
One could argue that the team playing the best coming out of the break is UW-La Crosse, who played a solid 30 minutes against the new No. 1 team in the country in North Central (Ill.) and took it to a Hardin-Simmons (Texas) squad the next day out in Vegas.
Point played two games (losing one of those) in Texas without leading scorer Tyler Tillema, who after playing a hobbled game against St. Thomas a week earlier, was sat out probably to get healthier before returning to conference play.
Whitewater and Stout each took losses, too, to St. Norbert and Loras (Iowa), respectively.
Here is how I see it playing out: I feel that Stout will fall off the pace, especially with playing La Crosse, Point and Whitewater within the next two weeks.
La Crosse and Platteville will go neck and neck for the three spot and hopefully build enough of a resume for a Pool C bid, although La Crosse could get hot and make a run at the top two spots in conference.
I still think it comes down to either Whitewater or Point. I'm going to pick Point because they will get Tillema back sooner than Whitewater will get back sharpshooter Cody Odegaard from a broken hand, which will make all the difference.
My favorite: UW-Stevens Point
My darkhorse: UW-La Crosse
MWC
The Midwest Conference standings right now are not indicative of how these teams are actually playing.
Grinnell just finished playing their first game back from a over three-week long break from games (last game was 12/11/2012 against Illinois College) against Beloit, but did win to go to 5-1.
Behind them are three teams with 4-2 records in Beloit, St. Norbert and Carroll.
Carroll had been struggling, having lost two games in a row before blowing out Cornell in a rare conference game during the holidays.
Beloit had a nearly two-week long break before playing Grinnell. They lost that game, too, to MSOE, so they haven't been playing the greatest as of late.
But the team playing the best out of arguably anyone that I'm covering in this blog has been St. Norbert. Norbert beat both Lawrence and Carroll before the holiday break and then won their own holiday tournament, destroying Marian and really controlling the whole game in an upset of Whitewater.
That's why they are my favorite to win this thing. They are playing better than anyone and at the right time as they head into the meat of their conference schedule.
After that, it's going to be between Grinnell and Carroll for the next two seeds in conference, in my opinion. And I think Carroll will take the No. 2 spot. They also have shot to reclaim that top spot for me if they can get back on the roll they were before break.
I just think Grinnell will have a couple of losses where they just go cold and lose, but they will stay at No. 3.
And as for the last spot in the conference tournament, it's probably going to be between these four teams, and these will be in order of who I think is going to get that spot: Lawrence, Beloit, Ripon, Illinois College. It comes down to which of these teams can string together a nice run of wins to take that final spot.
My favorite: St. Norbert
My darkhorse: Carroll
NAC
This really comes down to two teams -- one in each division.
Lakeland leads the North side at 4-0 with MSOE and Concordia-Wisconsin trailing with one loss behind them.
Aurora and Rockford are in a virtual tie for first place in the South, with the Spartans at 4-0 and the Regents at 3-0 and each team behind them has three losses.
But even though both took losses in holiday season, it still Lakeland and Aurora's divisions to lose. Both have more talent than the rest of the conference and have looked comfortable with the targets on their backs to this point, even though both have taken their lumps.
And I don't see that changing in the coming weeks. The only two teams that might have an outside shot at division titles (and I'm talking very outside) are MSOE and Rockford. MSOE because of the style of basketball that they play and Rockford because they got a head start on the rest of the South and do have the ability on offense to put up numbers with anybody.
But it's still Lakeland and Aurora, and I really don't see anybody jumping in to stop them.
My North favorite: Lakeland
My South favorite: Aurora
My North darkhorse: MSOE
My South darkhorse: Rockford
3 Performances of the Week
Jordan Giordana, UW-Stevens Point (against UT-Dallas)
Giordana got out of his shooting funk, scoring 29 points in the Pointers win over UT-Dallas. Giordana knocked in 9-of-12 three-pointers to lead UW-Stevens Point to victory.
Caleb Zeegers, Carroll (against Cornell)
Zeegers came off the bench and dropped in 25 points for the Pioneers. Zeegers went 7-of-8 from deep and tallied 6 assists in the conference win over Cornell.
Anthony Keener, Dominican (against Greenville)
Keener dropped in 33 points as the Stars down Greenville. Keener went 11-of-16 from the field and connected on both of his 3-point attempts in the win.
4 Power Teams in Two Words
WIAC
1. UW-Stevens Point (10-2, 3-0 WIAC) Words: Tillema time?
2. UW-Whitewater (9-2, 3-1 WIAC) Words: Falling off?
3. UW-La Crosse (9-3, 2-1 WIAC) Words: Playing better
4. UW-Platteville (10-3, 3-1 WIAC) Words: Staying inside
MWC
1. St. Norbert (7-3, 4-2 MWC) Words: Beat Whitewater
2. Grinnell (8-3, 5-1 MWC) Words: Restarting engines
3. Carroll (8-3, 4-2 MWC) Words: Resetting themselves
4. Beloit (5-5, 4-2 MWC) Words: Holding on
NAC
1. Lakeland (9-2, 4-0 NAC) Words: Top dog (North)
2. Aurora (9-4, 4-0 NAC) Words: Top dog (South)
3. MSOE (8-4, 3-1 NAC) Words: Grinding style
4. Rockford (5-7, 3-0 NAC) Words: Rough holiday
5 Worth the Price of Admission
1. MWC, Grinnell at Carroll, 3 p.m. Price I would pay: $9
This should be a fun matchup that could be one of the games that decides seeding in the conference tourney.
Grinnell, fresh off of beating Beloit after an over three-week layoff, gets to go to Carroll for another test of the system against the top of the conference.
Grinnell did it, too, back in December, when they went to St. Norbert and picked up a victory over the Green Knights. They will need to look back on that game and apply it again here against Carroll.
As for the Pioneers from Wisconsin, they have hit a bit of a lull for awhile, losing two straight games to Ripon and St. Norbert, but crushed Cornell last week.
One thing to look for is how well Carroll attacks the Grinnell press with their guards. Out of the teams that I have seen in the Midwest to this point, Carroll might be the only team that can (sort of) run with Grinnell. If they can beat the press enough times with their guard play, Carroll should take this one.
2. WIAC, UW-Stevens Point at UW-Eau Claire, 3 p.m. Price I would pay: $5
It will be interesting to see if Tillema is, in fact, back into the lineup in some way shape or form this week and specifically this game, whether it be off the bench or starting.
Either way, I think it's a game the Pointers can handle, although they showed susceptibility to teams that get out and run when they got beat by Concordia-Texas 96-82.
And even though the Blugolds aren't that particular kind of team, it may behoove them to maybe try and push the pace a little bit more, especially since they start basically four guards and an athletic post. This will also help them with their 3-pointers, too, as Eau Claire does like to chuck it from deep and three's are always more open in transition.
So, what this game really comes down to is who dictates pace. If Stevens Point does, it could be a blowout. If Eau Claire does, another upset could be brewing.
3. NAC, Rockford at Marian, 4:15 p.m. Price I would pay: $4
This is one of those games that could be a jump start either way for either team.
Rockford has remained undefeated in conference play to this point, but hasn't face a real quality opponent in those three games.
Meanwhile, Marian has been in a semi-slump for a team that was picked to be second in the North division. They are only 1-3 in conference, but I think they are better than their record shows and they did beat a very good Northwestern (Minn.) team at the St. Norbert tourney this past weekend.
If Rockford wins, it could be the kind of win that propels them to stay near the top of the conference and pick up the No. 3 or 4 seed in the conference tournament. If Marian wins, maybe it will propel them on the kind of run to get back into the thick of things in the North.
4. MWC, Illinois College at Beloit, 6 p.m. Price I would pay: $2
I'm interested in this game because of the up and down season of the Illinois College Blueboys.
They've come up with some surprising wins to this point, as they've given Grinnell their only loss of conference play and they walloped North Park (Ill.) 100-45.
The problem? They've also had some puzzling losses to Monmouth and Cornell.
Beloit, meanwhile, has hung around the top of the conference but just lost to Grinnell to move their record to 4-2 in conference play. But they haven't beaten any of the top teams of their conference yet.
This game could come down to the wire and will be very vital in who possibly picks up that final spot in the conference tournament.
5. NAC, Benedictine at Concordia-Wisconsin, 4:15 p.m. Price I would pay: $2.
This was supposed to be a game against teams that would be competing towards the top of their respective divisions.
One of them is. Concordia-Wisconsin is 2-1 in their conference and is essentially one game back of Lakeland. They did have a rough go of it during the holidays, losing to two WIAC teams in the Dells.
For Benedictine, their season has been anything but good and they've been having a difficult time getting anything going as far as confidence or winning streaks.
It's a game that Concordia-Wisconsin needs to win if they want to be taken seriously as a contender in the NAC, while for BenU, they are just looking for any kind of spark to get their season going.
Thanks for tuning in to the midweek blog. As always you can follow my thoughts on Twitter at @turkdigg40.
And I hope you enjoy the conference play. I know I will be.
No comments:
Post a Comment