It's now time for everyone's favorite Division III guessing game: Who is getting a Pool C Bid!!!!!!!!!?????? *Non-existent crowd* Yay!!!!!!!
But really, it is time to break that down. The NCAA just came out with their first regional rankings and of the blog teams, four were ranked: UW-Stevens Point, UW-Whitewater and UW-Stout in the West and St. Norbert in the Midwest.
Now since it's almost imperative that a team gets ranked right away in the regional rankings to have a shot at a Pool C bid, I'm going to take a look at those four teams, their resumes and their chances at receiving a Pool C should they not win their conference tournaments.
UW-Stevens Point
In-Region ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: .593
In-Region record: 18-4
Good wins: UW-Whitewater (2), UW-Stout, Augustana (Ill.)
Bad loss: UW-Platteville
Chances of Pool C: Excellent
The resume really speaks for itself having swept Whitewater and beaten a Midwest-ranked Augustana team and having done most of their damage in conference minus Preseason All-American Tyler Tillema.
There is still the fact that they are now even more hurt by the injury bug with Austin Ryf in a walking boot and Joe Ritchay leaving Wednesday's game but they've done plenty of work in the non-conference (Augustana win, Buena Vista (Iowa) win, close St. Thomas loss) and in conference that even if they were to lose their next three games (Last two regular season games, first game of conference tournament), and I really don't expect that to happen, they are still going to get in.
The only thing those injuries will effect is how well they do once they get to the tournament and possibly where they get thrown to on Selection Monday.
I don't think the Pointers will have to be sweating it at all unless they really look bad in these upcoming games and it really effects the standings in the next regional ranking.
UW-Whitewater
In-Region ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: .606
In-Region record: 16-4
Good wins: Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Stout (2)
Bad loss: UW-Superior
Chances of Pool C: Good
Another solid resume from a WIAC team. They really put in their work in the non-conference portion of the season to boost their strength of schedule thanks to teams like Aurora, Wesleyan and St. Norbert.
However, there are two concerns here for me that I will point out. First, lack of a win against UW-Stevens Point, which would've been a signature win in the second half of the season. This is a tough fact to get over because the Pointers played without Tillema for three halves in both games and the Warhawks couldn't get by them either time.
The second are those losses to St. Norbert and to UW-Superior. Both of those losses are still haunting me, even with Whitewater putting a whooping on the Green Knights at home last weekend. But it still bugs me that they got blown out in Green Bay in December. Those are my only, admittedly minor, qualms with Warhawks' resume.
Ultimately, they are going to get in unless they completely blow it their next three games. Their strength of schedule is too good and they have had a return to form as of late and if they continue that run they could end up just taking the WIAC tourney anyways. Also that win on the road at Illinois Wesleyan, the cream of the crop in the CCIW and top ranked team in the Midwest, is too gaudy to ignore.
UW-Stout
In-Region ranking: 5
Strength of Schedule: .538
In-Region record: 16-4
Good wins: UW-Platteville (2), UW-La Crosse, Luther (Iowa)
Bad losses: UW-La Crosse, Loras (Iowa)
Chances of Pool C: Medium
On the surface the resume looks good. 16-4 In-Region record (which doesn't include a loss this week to La Crosse) with a decent Strength of Schedule and doing it in arguably the toughest conference in DIII basketball (Notice, I said ARGUABLY. Don't get mad at me NESCAC, ODAC, CCIW or anyone else I may have offended out there in the DIII universe).
But the resume is more flawed than you think. Stout played a pretty easy non-conference schedule (83-93 combined record for opponents for a .471 winning percentage, compared to a .613 for UW-Stevens Point NC opponents and .622 for UW-Whitewater NC opponents) and just a horrendous loss to not good Loras team at a neutral site.
Their last loss to UW-La Crosse wasn't something something to be proud of either and that also didn't count in this round of regional rankings, but it's not nearly as bad as that Loras one is.
They also lack a signature win. There best wins were over Platteville and over Luther, who is regionally ranked but it was early in the season. If they would've gotten one of those games over Whitewater in which they were so close, it would've improved their resume drastically.
But don't fear, Blue Devils fans, you get probably two more shots at a signature win. They have a game coming up against UW-Stevens Point and they are probably headed for a rematch with Point or Whitewater in the WIAC tournament semifinals, which would be huge.
If they can get one of those two wins it drastically improves the resume and probably gets them in. But if they don't, that loss to Loras and poor non-conference SOS loom huge and may be to big to overlook, which is why I'm hesitant with the Blue Devils.
It's also big to see where they land with that La Crosse loss in next week's rankings and how far it moves them down. I think that their name will come up in the Pool C selection process at some point. But will the resume be better than the other seven that are seated there with them? I just don't know.
In-Region ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: .525
In-Region record: 15-4
Good win: UW-Whitewater
Bad loss: Cornell
Chances of Pool C: Poor
This maybe more the region they are in than anything else.
The Green Knights resume boasts one key signature win and one bad loss (even though it was early in the season). Otherwise, it is pretty vanilla, including a loss to Augustana, who is in their region. So, it's not great but it isn't real bad either.
However, there are three problems when it comes to the Green Knights shot at a Pool C. Firstly, their lack of a non-conference schedule. This is a pretty big problem, considering they only had five non-conference games to work with. Those five? A win over UW-Oshkosh (nothing to see), a loss to Augustana (nothing to see), a win over Marian (nothing to see) and UW-Whitewater twice (A win and a loss, both canceling each other out, but you could argue that the loss to Whitewater means more because it was more recent).
It's this lack of substance in this non-conference portion of their schedule that doesn't distinguish them.
Next, is who they would have to jump over to get that Pool C. That list is a who's who of either teams in stronger conferences or storied programs: Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW), Transylvania (HCAC), Wheaton (CCIW), Wash U (UAA), North Central (CCIW), Rose-Hulman (HCAC), Augustana (CCIW). Those are no slouches and each one of those teams has signature wins (multiple).
It's hard to see them jump over anyone in that group because all four of those CCIW teams should be in their conference tournament (unless Carthage can sneak in over Augustana, but I don't see it happening), Transylvania or Rose-Hulman have a very good shot at being in the conference title game which ensures them a spot at the front of the Midwest line IMO, and unless Wash U somehow overtakes Rochester, the Bears won't get the auto bid out of the UAA.
So by these rankings here is how it would break down. One of the four CCIW teams will get the auto bid and so will one of the HCAC teams and give Pool C bids for sure to Wash U., Wheaton and North Central (resumes are good and barring complete letdowns, will be in). Which leaves St. Norbert to leapfrog over Augustana (who beat them) and Rose-Hulman (who is 18-2 in-region).
Which leads me to my next problem for St. Norbert. Say they win all the way to their conference title game and lose to Grinnell, the next best team in the MWC (which is what it's going to have to take. If they lose anywhere in between there you can kiss any chance goodbye). That gives them a 19-5 in region record.
Now, say Augustana wins out in the regular season or heck, even give them a loss to North Central and then a bow out in first round of the CCIW tournament. That puts them at 18-6 or 17-7. And give Rose-Hulman, say, two more losses, one in the regular season and one in the conference tournament, putting them at roughly 21-4.
Now are you going to tell me, that looking at all three of those going into the final regional rankings, given the SOS numbers and wins, that you are going to put St. Norbert above Augie or RHIT and give them a spot closer to the Pool C table? I just don't think so.
I think it's going to take a miracle for St. Norbert to pull off a Pool C, but that is just me.
Thanks for tuning in to my Pool C blog. Feel free to jump in with comments or concerns with my logic on the comments section and as always you can follow my thoughts on Twitter at @turkdigg40.
I will also be doing a more in depth Pool C update next week and give you some more universal DIII projections into the field of 61. I will also have tiebreaker scenario blogs coming up for each of the three conferences next week, along with my usual midweek and weekend analysis blog.
If they can get one of those two wins it drastically improves the resume and probably gets them in. But if they don't, that loss to Loras and poor non-conference SOS loom huge and may be to big to overlook, which is why I'm hesitant with the Blue Devils.
It's also big to see where they land with that La Crosse loss in next week's rankings and how far it moves them down. I think that their name will come up in the Pool C selection process at some point. But will the resume be better than the other seven that are seated there with them? I just don't know.
St. Norbert
In-Region ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: .525
In-Region record: 15-4
Good win: UW-Whitewater
Bad loss: Cornell
Chances of Pool C: Poor
This maybe more the region they are in than anything else.
The Green Knights resume boasts one key signature win and one bad loss (even though it was early in the season). Otherwise, it is pretty vanilla, including a loss to Augustana, who is in their region. So, it's not great but it isn't real bad either.
However, there are three problems when it comes to the Green Knights shot at a Pool C. Firstly, their lack of a non-conference schedule. This is a pretty big problem, considering they only had five non-conference games to work with. Those five? A win over UW-Oshkosh (nothing to see), a loss to Augustana (nothing to see), a win over Marian (nothing to see) and UW-Whitewater twice (A win and a loss, both canceling each other out, but you could argue that the loss to Whitewater means more because it was more recent).
It's this lack of substance in this non-conference portion of their schedule that doesn't distinguish them.
Next, is who they would have to jump over to get that Pool C. That list is a who's who of either teams in stronger conferences or storied programs: Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW), Transylvania (HCAC), Wheaton (CCIW), Wash U (UAA), North Central (CCIW), Rose-Hulman (HCAC), Augustana (CCIW). Those are no slouches and each one of those teams has signature wins (multiple).
It's hard to see them jump over anyone in that group because all four of those CCIW teams should be in their conference tournament (unless Carthage can sneak in over Augustana, but I don't see it happening), Transylvania or Rose-Hulman have a very good shot at being in the conference title game which ensures them a spot at the front of the Midwest line IMO, and unless Wash U somehow overtakes Rochester, the Bears won't get the auto bid out of the UAA.
So by these rankings here is how it would break down. One of the four CCIW teams will get the auto bid and so will one of the HCAC teams and give Pool C bids for sure to Wash U., Wheaton and North Central (resumes are good and barring complete letdowns, will be in). Which leaves St. Norbert to leapfrog over Augustana (who beat them) and Rose-Hulman (who is 18-2 in-region).
Which leads me to my next problem for St. Norbert. Say they win all the way to their conference title game and lose to Grinnell, the next best team in the MWC (which is what it's going to have to take. If they lose anywhere in between there you can kiss any chance goodbye). That gives them a 19-5 in region record.
Now, say Augustana wins out in the regular season or heck, even give them a loss to North Central and then a bow out in first round of the CCIW tournament. That puts them at 18-6 or 17-7. And give Rose-Hulman, say, two more losses, one in the regular season and one in the conference tournament, putting them at roughly 21-4.
Now are you going to tell me, that looking at all three of those going into the final regional rankings, given the SOS numbers and wins, that you are going to put St. Norbert above Augie or RHIT and give them a spot closer to the Pool C table? I just don't think so.
I think it's going to take a miracle for St. Norbert to pull off a Pool C, but that is just me.
Thanks for tuning in to my Pool C blog. Feel free to jump in with comments or concerns with my logic on the comments section and as always you can follow my thoughts on Twitter at @turkdigg40.
I will also be doing a more in depth Pool C update next week and give you some more universal DIII projections into the field of 61. I will also have tiebreaker scenario blogs coming up for each of the three conferences next week, along with my usual midweek and weekend analysis blog.
No comments:
Post a Comment